TEHRAN – The U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, initially aimed at weakening Tehran’s nuclear and missile capabilities and accompanied by talk of possible regime change, has now entered a complex and uncertain phase.

Iran’s ability to maintain control over the Strait of Hormuz suggests that geography can, at times, outweigh even the most advanced military power.

Before the war starts on Feb. 28, U.S. planners and their allies entirely recognized that this highly strategic passage could become a problem, but a problem just for several days!
Now, following weeks of soaring oil prices, Iran’s ability to endure pressure has gone beyond what many expected. Despite military strikes, including attacks on Iranian naval assets and reports that dozens of mine-laying vessels have been destroyed, the Islamic Republic has managed to keep its influence over the strait that connects oil-rich Persian Gulf to the Sea of Oman and the rest of the world.

This way, U.S.’s efforts to bring shipping back to normal have not succeeded so far. There is also a fear and uncertainty among shipping companies that despite possible U.S. naval escorts, not willing to risk sending their vessels through such a “dangerous” zone. 

Contradictory signals from Washington

Since the start of war, U.S. President Donald Trump has come under growing pressure, both inside the United States and internationally, to end the war because of its global economic impact. His reactions, however, have not always been consistent.

At times, Trump has said that the United States does not need the Strait of Hormuz and has called on other countries, especially allies in Europe and Asia, to take responsibility for reopening it. But at other times, his tone has become much more aggressive.

He on Friday said the U.S. does not need the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world’s oil passes, and said other nations “will have to get involved.”

In a controversial statement on Saturday, Trump warned Iran to fully reopen the strait in two days unless it would destroy Iran’s power plants. 

“If Iran doesn’t FULLY OPEN, WITHOUT THREAT, the Strait of Hormuz, within 48 HOURS from this exact point in time, the United States of America will hit and obliterate their various POWER PLANTS, STARTING WITH THE BIGGEST ONE FIRST! Thank you for your attention to this matter.”

The warning was widely seen as a serious escalation, raising concerns about international law and fears that the conflict could grow even more dangerous. From a humanitarian perspective, and even allowing for some exaggeration, Trump’s threats may be compared to the United States’ use of atomic bombs on Japan at the end of World War II, both reflecting an escalation toward extreme measures that raise serious concerns about the potential for inhumane actions in pursuit of strategic objectives.

As of now, nearly a day has passed since that ultimatum, and the Islamic Republic, for its part, has responded by warning that any such attack would be met with retaliation against U.S. infrastructure in the region, including energy facilities in the Persian Gulf. This exchange shows just how tense and fragile the situation has become.

 A selective closure

Iranian officials reject the idea that the Strait of Hormuz is completely closed. Instead, they say access is being controlled in a selective way.

Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on Friday in an interview with Japan’s Kyodo News: “We have not closed the strait. It is open.” He explained that restrictions apply only to ships from countries involved in attacks against Iran. Other countries can still pass through the strait if they coordinate with Tehran.

Reports suggest that ships from countries such as Japan, India, Pakistan, and Turkey have continued to pass under these conditions. This approach allows Iran to keep pressure on its opponents while avoiding conflict with neutral countries.

 Iran’s strategic strength

Even though Iran has suffered heavy losses during the conflict, including the sinking of many armed ships, it still has enough military capability to control access to the Strait of Hormuz. Moreover, is has a good knowledge of the area that is narrow and difficult to navigate, which gives an advantage to the country that controls its coastline. 

The coming days, however, especially in light of Washington’s ultimatum and Tehran’s response, could be critical. But one point is already clear: in this war, geography and geopolitics are just as important as military power in deciding the final outcome that is closely intertwined with the fate of the Strait of Hormuz. 

There are two potential scenarios: either Iran continues to exert significant influence over the strait, consolidating its strategic control, or a new order emerges where Iran’s role is diminished, subject to negotiated arrangements or international enforcement mechanisms. 

Despite heavy losses of its nuclear and military facilities, sustained Iranian oversight over the Strait of Hormuz, could itself constitute a form of strategic and clear VICTORY, for the ancient country.

AM